Photo : The New York Times/Doug Mills
18 January 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #101
IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan
NATO-Russia Council: What does it mean for Europe?
A brief background
On 12 January, the NATO-Russia Council (NRC) held its first meeting since July 2019 in Brussels. The talks were primarily scheduled to discuss the border issue of Ukraine. Russia, found to be assembling troops along Ukraine’s eastern border, has been viewed as a threat to both Ukrainian and European security. There have been demands from all sides – Ukraine, Europe and Russia. The US considers this as a serious and the issue of Ukraine has been the focus of Washington’s recent talks with Moscow.
To address the security situation of Europe while taking into account Russian demands, there have been a series of diplomatic talks held between the US and Russia; NATO and Russia; The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and Russia.
Out of the above four meetings, this analysis looks at the NATO and Russia Council meet. This analysis intends to brings out the following three key factors with regard to the NRC. One, Russia’s determination to threaten the integration plans of NATO. Two, divided focus of NATO in addressing the problem of Ukraine. Three, the US's tactical stance to keep Russia on the edge.
Russian demands
First, Refusal of NATO membership to Ukraine and Georgia. NATO's promise to accede Ukraine into the alliance has been pushed since 2008. However, the reason behind Russia’s demand for never letting Ukraine and Georgia into NATO is to prevent them from becoming anti-Russian proxy states.
Second, withdrawal of NATO military exercises from former USSR nations. Russia requires NATO to exit Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. According to few Russian leaders in the administration, Putin’s interests seem to lean towards geopolitical expansion over other existing issues. This is justified given Russia’s annexation of Crimea following the change in its leadership in 2014. Hence, Russia’s interest to modify the “post-cold war security architecture in Europe” is higher now than ever.
Third, a legal guarantee from NATO. According to Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov: “For us, it’s absolutely mandatory to make sure that Ukraine never, never, ever becomes a member of NATO, we need ironclad, waterproof, bulletproof, legally binding guarantees.” Russia strongly demands a legal guarantee from NATO and the EU, stating that Ukraine will never become a member of NATO. This shows a lack of trust between the two parties; it also ensures the Kremlin never loses power over Ukrainian politics.
Europe’s Response
First, NATO. According to NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg: “Our differences will not be easy to bridge, but it is a positive sign that all 30 NATO allies sat down with Russia after two years.” The NATO allies have termed Russian demands to be unacceptable while suggesting more talks to reduce tensions. Apart from this, an alternative solution to Russia’s demand of withdrawal of NATO troops from former soviet republics, NATO has agreed to bring transparency in its military operations to prevent disastrous events, reduce space and cyber threats and also to focus on arms control.
The US: What does it want, and why
On one hand, the US has disclosed its plans to impose mandatory sanctions on Russian leaders close to President Putin, on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) , the global banking transaction system. It has warned that it would order the Defense and State Departments to advance transfer of weapons and military equipment and also provide USD 500 million as security assistance to Ukraine.
On the other hand, it has shown readiness to Russia to negotiate on the mutual restrictions and scope of military exercises in Europe. Such an act draws confusion, whether the US is tactically using the security situation of Ukraine to balance out with Russia to counter the larger issue of China.
So, what does the above mean?
First, the lack of unity in Europe against Russia. The allies of the NATO are against the Russian military build-up, but when it comes to Nord Stream 2, with Europe going through an energy crisis, not all have strong opposition to Russia.
Second, the sidelining of Ukraine. Taking in the series of meetings, the representation of Ukraine or the opportunity to voice its concerns in the meeting has been drastically lower.
Third, NATO or the larger Europe does not have anything to offer Russia. Therefore, keeping the diplomatic talks in the loop is the only option to avoid the escalation of conflict on the Ukraine border.
Fourth, the US offer to Russia. Russia is not just assembling its troops on the Ukraine border, but has begun to send its forces from eastern military district, which is a warning sign for NATO to be ready. The US move to hit Russia with strict sanctions is convincing, but the scope of negotiation with Russia to reduce down the existing NATO military troops in Europe is inciting fear.
References:
“Russia and the West meet for a crucial week of diplomacy,” The Economist, 15 January 2022.
“Russia, NATO Fail to Resolve Differences in Ukraine Talks,” The Wall Street Journal, 12 January 2022.
“NATO open to more talks with Russia amid Ukraine tensions,” Deutsche Welle, 12 January 2022.
IN BRIEF
By Ashwin Dhanabalan and Joeana Cera Matthews
FRANCE
Presidential candidate Zemmour fined for hate speech
On 17 January, a court in France fined far-right French presidential candidate Eric Zemmour an amount of EUR 10,000 for hate speech. Zemmour was fined for the comments he made back in September 2020 on CNews, where he used to work as a pundit. While answering a question regarding the knife attacks by a young radicalized Pakistani immigrant in Nice, he replied: "They have nothing to do here. They are thieves, they are murderers, they are rapists, that's all they are. They must be sent back and they must not even come." Zemmour, known for his anti-Islam and anti-immigration views, has earlier been convicted for hate speech twice. ("Eric Zemmour: Far-right candidate found guilty of hate speech," BBC, 17 January 2022; "Far-right French presidential candidate found guilty of racist hate speech," The Guardian, 17 January 2022)
RUSSIA
Marking one year since Navalny’s arrest
On 17 January, Kremlin dissident Alexei Navalny marked a year since his arrest at the Moscow International Airport which followed a two-and-a-half-year prison sentence for violating parole conditions on fraud charges. On the anniversary, Navalny took to Twitter and expressed his lack of “regret” regarding his decision to return to Russia, even though it meant a second arrest. He added: “Having served my first year in prison, I want to tell everyone exactly what I shouted to those gathered outside the court when a convoy led me to a police van: Don't be afraid of anything… Why live your whole life in fear, and even to be robbed, if you can arrange everything differently — more fairly.” Many international and regional actors called for the release of Navalny; including Amnesty International and the EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell. (“Alexei Navalny says he has ′no regrets′ 1 year since arrest,” Deutsche Welle, 17 January 2022; “EU urges Moscow to free Navalny on anniversary of his arrest,” Reuters, 17 January 2022)
UKRAINE
Poroshenko back in Ukraine
On 17 January, former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko returned to the country’s capital to undergo trial as he has been charged with high treason. On reaching Ukraine, investigators tried to subpoena him but Poroshenko declined from accepting the documents. Thousands of supporters had gathered outside the airport as the former President addressed the crowd, saying: “[The authorities] are setting us back 10 years. We’re here not to defend Poroshenko, we’re here to join forces and defend Ukraine. United Ukraine is strong, and a strong Ukraine is capable of pushing back (against) Putin… Now I'm heading to the court where we'll give them a fight.” The court placed his bail at UAH 1 billion and asked him to wear an electronic tracing bracelet. If convicted, Poroshenko faces a prison sentence of 15 years. (“Ukraine: Ex-President Petro Poroshenko returns to face treason charges,” Deutsche Welle, 17 January 2022; Luke Harding, “Former Ukraine president returns to Kyiv to face treason charges,” The Guardian, 17 January 2022)
REGIONAL
Ukraine: Baerbock’s two-day visit
On 17 January, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock visited Ukraine. During her visit, she said: "... we are ready to have a serious dialogue about joint agreements and steps that bring more security for everyone in Europe, Russia included.” Her comments followed Russia increasing its troop buildup and military equipment along the Ukrainian border. Baerbock further emphasized that Kyiv would be involved and informed of any talks that are to happen regarding Ukraine. Meanwhile, the UK government extended its support to Ukraine as it supplied Kyiv with short-range anti-tank missiles for self-defense. British troops have been in Ukraine since 2015 and had committed to help rebuild the Ukrainian navy after Russia invaded Ukraine. The UK’s Secretary of State for Defense Ben Wallace spoke about the supply of weapons, stating: "Let me be clear: this support is for short-range and clearly defensive weapon capabilities; they are not strategic weapons and pose no threat to Russia; they are to use in self-defence.”
(Joseph Lee, "Russia-Ukraine crisis: UK sending weapons to defend Ukraine, says defense secretary," BBC, 18 January 2022; “Germany's Baerbock visits Ukraine amid rising tensions with Russia” Deutsche Welle, 17 January 2022)
United Resolve: Russia and Belarus plan joint military exercises in February 2022
On 17 January, The Guardian reported Russian troop movement towards western Belarus ahead of joint military exercises set between the two countries for February. Named the United Resolve, the Belarusian Security Council’s Head Alexander Volfovich stated that the troops were coming ahead of the drills. The Guardian stated this was a matter of concern for the West given that analyses made with reference to Russian invasion of Ukraine involved scenarios where the latter was captured via Belarus. Meanwhile, other theories maintained Belarus’ limited role in the conflict. Responding to the international concern regarding the movement, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said: “Why are we and Russia being reproached for holding manoeuvres, exercises and so forth when you’ve come from far away?.. There are some hot-heads calling for war. We hear these statements.” (Andrew Roth, “Russia moves troops to Belarus for joint exercises near Ukraine border,” The Guardian, 17 January 2022)
Madrid: Scholz meets Spanish counterpart Sanchez
On 17 January, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez during the former’s visit to Madrid. The two leaders discussed the possibility of working together closely on the EU's fiscal policies. Sanchez said: "The chancellor and I note that we are entering a new phase in our cooperation at European level." He expressed this sentiment given the similar vision both countries share on social and economic progress. The leaders also discussed the expansion of clean energy sources in the bloc, as Scholz expressed: "Spain and Germany are both very ambitious. We want to achieve fast progress in the expansion of renewables." ("German Chancellor Scholz and Spanish PM Sanchez discuss relaxing EU fiscal policy," Deutsche Welle, 17 January 2022)
COVID-19
Germany: 70,000 demonstrators protest against vaccine mandate and restrictions
On 17 January, 70,000 demonstrators took to the streets of Germany to protest against COVID-19 measures in the country. Protestors brandished signs and banners to show their disapproval of the vaccine mandate and the new measures implemented to tackle the rising cases of Omicron. Large police contingents were present at the locations as counter-demonstrations also took place. The regions of Rostock and Bautzen saw police interventions as protests were either unregistered or failed to abide by health and safety requirements. Although other locations like Thuringia and Bavaria were comparatively peaceful, they saw people demonstrating in numbers of 21,000 and 14,000 respectively. Given the situation, German Health Minister Karl Lauterbach suggested a lockdown while he also commented on the vaccine mandate and said: "I would prefer that we protect [the unvaccinated] with a general obligation to be vaccinated, rather than with restrictions for everybody in the spring.” ("Over 70,000 attend German protests against COVID measures," Deutsche Welle, 18 January 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
Germany’s Scholz and Chinese Li hold telephonic conversation
On 18 January, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz received a call from Chinese Premier Li Keqiang pledging China's readiness to work with Germany. Li talked about German and Chinese long-term relations and expressed that both countries were "responsible countries in the world, as well as supporters of multilateralism and practitioners of free trade". His comments came in light of the 50th anniversary of the establishment of German and Chinese diplomatic ties. (Joel Day, "China finds ally in Germany following 'below radar' meeting: 'Let's work together'," Daily Express, 18 January 2022)
Serbia: Djokovic returns to Belgrade following Australian deportation
On 17 January, Serbian tennis star Novak Djokovic returned home after being deported from Australia given he was unvaccinated against COVID-19. He was received at the Belgrade airport with fans chanting “we love Novak”. The Australian Immigration laws state that Djokovic cannot be provided with another visa for the next three years; however, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison stated: “[The ban] does go over a three-year period, but there is the opportunity for them to return in the right circumstances and that would be considered at the time.” The Australian Open, from which Djokovic was removed, began on 17 January in Melbourne. The top men’s tennis player's condition put at stake his 21st Grand Slam title. (“'You are our champion': Deported Djokovic welcomed home to Serbia,” France24, 17 January 2022; “Djokovic back in Serbia after Australia deportation over visa row,” BBC, 17 January 2022)